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Game Theory & Strategic Decision-Making

Why do ransomware gangs honor their promises? Why do doping scandals, arms races, and group projects keep producing the same trap? Ten units on the science of interdependent decisions — from the prisoner's dilemma to the design of kidney exchanges — where the deepest results are about how cooperation survives among self-interested players.

10 Units
2-3 weeks per unit per unit
Curriculum Map

What You Will Learn

Diagnose the Game

The transfer goal is a diagnostic instinct: is this a dilemma, a coordination problem, or a commitment problem? Misdiagnosis is how good intentions produce bad outcomes — the course trains the reading, not the math.

Cooperation Is the Puzzle

Axelrod's tournament, repeated games, reputation, and Ostrom's field data on commons that govern themselves — the through-line is how trust emerges and persists without enforcement, not how to outsmart anyone.

Units 1, 6, 8

Redesign the Game

The capstone turns the lens around: spectrum auctions, kidney exchange, school matching. If the game produces bad outcomes, the rules themselves are a design space.

Unit 10

Curated Video Library

11 curated videos to explore — plus 17 more matched to individual units inside the course

This game theory problem will change the way you see the world
27m
explainer
This game theory problem will change the way you see the worldYouTube
Veritasium·Dec 2023(2 years ago)·24.4M views

Derek Muller's account of the Prisoner's Dilemma is built around the same historical spine Unit 1 uses — Axelrod's tournament, TIT FOR TAT, the Cold War arms race as the highest-stakes real instance of the game — and Muller interviewed Axelrod directly for it, so this is closer to primary source than most explainer content gets. Watch for the RAND Corporation section around the 14-minute mark: Cold War strategists formalized the game specifically to reason about nuclear posture, which is the historical hinge Unit 3 uses to argue the dilemma is a recurring structure, not a puzzle about prisoners. The video closes on Axelrod's four properties of TIT FOR TAT (nice, retaliatory, forgiving, clear) in the same order Unit 1's learning objectives list them — use it as a comprehension check after finishing the unit text.

prisoner's dilemmatit-for-tatshadow of the future
Robert Axelrod: Why Being Nice, Forgiving, and Provokable are the Best Strategies for Life
45m
interview
Robert Axelrod: Why Being Nice, Forgiving, and Provokable are the Best Strategies for LifeYouTube
Freakonomics Radio Network·Jan 2023(3 years ago)·14K views

Steve Levitt interviews Robert Axelrod himself about the tournament Unit 1 is built around — the exact source, not a secondhand summary. Axelrod explains in his own words why TIT FOR TAT's forgiveness mattered as much as its retaliation, and extends 'the shadow of the future' (his own coinage, used verbatim in Unit 1 and Unit 6's titles) to cyberweapons and cancer-cell competition, arenas well beyond the unit's ransomware-gang hook. Long-form and conversational rather than produced, this is the closest this library gets to hearing the scholar think out loud about his own fifty-year-old result, including where he thinks the tournament's lesson has been misapplied since.

shadow of the futuretit-for-tatrepeated game
How to outsmart the Prisoner's Dilemma - Lucas Husted
6m
explainer
How to outsmart the Prisoner's Dilemma - Lucas HustedYouTube
TED-Ed·Aug 2020(5 years ago)·4.9M views

Six minutes, animated, and structurally exact: two gingerbread men face a fox's version of the dilemma, and the video walks the Nash equilibrium logic Unit 3 requires — why mutual defection is the unique stable outcome even though mutual cooperation pays both players more. The back half turns the one-shot game into an infinite repeated game and shows the payoff structure flip, which is Unit 6's shadow-of-the-future argument compressed into ninety seconds. Assign this first, before the longer Veritasium video — it is the fastest correct account of the core structure the rest of the showcase builds on.

prisoner's dilemmaNash equilibriumrepeated game
24. Market Failures II: Informational Asymmetry
48m
lecture
24. Market Failures II: Informational AsymmetryYouTube
MIT OpenCourseWare·Jul 2020(6 years ago)·62K views

Jonathan Gruber's MIT lecture runs the full adverse-selection machinery — asymmetric information, the death spiral, and the government and market fixes that emerge to counteract it — using health insurance rather than used cars as the running example. That substitution is the point: Unit 9 argues the lemons structure recurs wherever one side of a transaction knows something the other can only guess, and health coverage is a cleaner illustration of the death-spiral dynamic than Akerlof's original car lot, because the stakes of adverse selection compound visibly over the course of the lecture. Pair with the MRU used-car video below for the canonical version, then watch this for the same structure at higher stakes. College-bound students should notice this is what an actual undergraduate economics lecture sounds like — no simplification, full worked logic.

information asymmetryadverse selection
Simulating the Evolution of Aggression
13m
explainer
Simulating the Evolution of AggressionYouTube
Primer·Jul 2019(6 years ago)·24.8M views

Primer's agent-based simulation is the single best visual argument for Unit 7's central claim: a strategy can win without anyone choosing it, because genes that produce hawk-like or dove-like behavior simply reproduce at different rates depending on what the rest of the population is doing. Watch the population ratio stabilize around the 9-minute mark — that convergence point is the evolutionarily stable strategy the unit defines, rendered as a number the simulation finds rather than a proof a mathematician derives. This is the course's clearest instance of removing the mind from the game, which is the unit's opening move: deer that fight with antlers instead of teeth are running the identical hawk-dove logic without ever knowing they are playing.

evolutionarily stable strategyhawk-dove game
Evolutionarily Stable Strategies ft. Richard Dawkins
4m
explainer
Evolutionarily Stable Strategies ft. Richard DawkinsYouTube
Veritasium·Jul 2015(10 years ago)·699K views

Richard Dawkins explains, in his own words, why evolution favors a stable ratio of competing strategies rather than one dominant type — the hawk-dove insight generalized beyond animal combat to sex ratios and beyond. This is a tighter, more conceptual companion to the Primer simulation above: where Primer shows you the population converging, Dawkins explains why convergence to a mixed ratio, not a single winner, is the mathematically expected outcome once you accept that genes are playing a game against copies of themselves. Four minutes, dense, worth pausing on the fisher/pirate example partway through.

evolutionarily stable strategyhawk-dove game
Asymmetric Information and Used Cars
3m
explainer
Asymmetric Information and Used CarsYouTube
Marginal Revolution University·Jan 2015(11 years ago)·392K views

Under three minutes and built entirely around Akerlof's original 1970 example: a used-car lot where sellers know the car's true quality and buyers can only guess, so the good cars get driven out of the market and only lemons remain. This is Unit 9's opening case study delivered in its canonical form, including the market solutions (warranties, Carfax, certified pre-owned programs) that emerged specifically to repair the information gap. Watch before the unit text — it installs the base case so that the unit's later moves (diplomas as signals, peacock tails as costly signals, propaganda as a flooding strategy) land as the same structure wearing different costumes, which is the unit's explicit thesis.

information asymmetryadverse selectionsignaling
Stable Marriage Problem - Numberphile
9m
explainer
Stable Marriage Problem - NumberphileYouTube
Numberphile·Sep 2014(11 years ago)·959K views

Dr. Emily Riehl walks through the Gale-Shapley algorithm using couples proposing and rejecting their way to a stable pairing — the exact matching-market logic Unit 10 uses to explain how residency programs assign doctors to hospitals and how school-choice systems assign students to schools. The video's core insight is the one the unit's capstone argument depends on: 'stable' does not mean 'optimal for everyone,' it means no pair would rather defect to each other than stay matched, which is a Nash-style equilibrium concept applied to a matching problem instead of a payoff table. Alvin Roth's real-world deployments (kidney exchange, school matching) that the unit covers are direct engineering applications of the algorithm this video explains from first principles.

matching marketmechanism design
War Gaming | Pete Pellegrino: What is a Game?
50m
lecture
War Gaming | Pete Pellegrino: What is a Game?YouTube
U.S. Naval War College·Dec 2012(13 years ago)·3K views

Delivered from the institution that studies strategic conflict as its actual job, not as an academic curiosity — a Senior Military Analyst at the Naval War College works through what makes something a game in the formal sense before turning explicitly to game theory (the segment starting around minute 18, chaptered 'What About Game Theory?') and then to how war games function as decision-support tools rather than entertainment. This is the course's clearest bridge from Unit 2's payoff-table reasoning to the professional register a reader headed toward defense, intelligence, or policy work will actually encounter: the same dominance and equilibrium logic Polak teaches in a Yale classroom, applied by an institution whose job is reasoning about real adversaries under real stakes. Pair with Polak's Lecture 1 above — same underlying structure, two very different rooms.

game theorydominant strategy
1. Introduction: five first lessons
1h 9m
lecture
1. Introduction: five first lessonsYouTube
YaleCourses·Nov 2008(17 years ago)·1.2M views

This is the actual Ben Polak lecture the course's opener is adapted from — the same payoff-table exercise Unit 2 runs on the reader, filmed live on a Yale classroom of students who don't yet know they're about to learn never to play a dominated strategy. Watch the section starting around minute 21 (Chapter 5, 'Strictly Dominant versus Strictly Dominated Strategies') for the exact proverb the unit repeats verbatim, and the coordination-problem material after minute 41 for the setup Unit 4 continues. Long — 68 minutes — but this is what the course's every-concept-inside-a-real-situation method looks like at full classroom length, taught by the voice this entire course borrows its register from.

dominant strategydominated strategyprisoner's dilemma
5. Nash equilibrium: bad fashion and bank runs
1h 9m
lecture
5. Nash equilibrium: bad fashion and bank runsYouTube
YaleCourses·Nov 2008(17 years ago)·161K views

Polak's formal definition of Nash equilibrium, delivered through a live class investment game before the definition is stated — the same before-you-name-it sequencing every unit in this course follows. This is the primary-source lecture behind Unit 2's central proverb: equilibrium means no regrets, not the best possible outcome for everyone. The bank-run material after minute 32 is directly relevant to Unit 4's coordination-game material — Polak shows a class splitting between a good equilibrium and a bad one with identical incentives to coordinate, which is exactly the standards-war logic (QWERTY, VHS) the unit applies to focal points. Assign after Unit 2's text, as the fuller derivation of the 'no regrets' idea the unit states more briefly.

Nash equilibriumcoordination game

Explore These Channels

Game Theory with Ben Polak (ECON 159)

YaleCourses

~20h

The course's voice lead. Polak's full ECON 159 lecture series is the primary-source classroom behind this course's entire pedagogical method — running the experiment on the students before naming the concept, then repeating the lesson as a proverb. Lectures 1 and 5 anchor the showcase; the full 24-lecture series covers dominance, Nash equilibrium, mixed strategies, backward induction, and repeated games at full classroom depth for students who want more than the unit text provides.

Covers 4 units in this course
Primer
~3h

Justin Helps builds agent-based simulations in Blender and Python that visualize evolutionary game theory — hawk-dove, kin selection, group selection — as population dynamics rather than static payoff tables. This is the strongest video argument in the library for Unit 7's thesis that strategy can operate on organisms with no minds at all: genes that encode a behavioral rule simply reproduce at different rates depending on the mix of strategies already in the population. Named directly in the course plan's media-anchors section.

Covers 2 units in this course
Veritasium
~1h

Derek Muller's channel supplies the two most-produced explainer videos in this library — the Prisoner's Dilemma deep dive (built with direct input from Robert Axelrod) and the Dawkins interview on evolutionarily stable strategies. Named directly in the course plan's media-anchors section for its prisoner's-dilemma content; the ESS video is a bonus find that pairs tightly with Unit 7.

Covers 3 units in this course
Game Theory 101 Full Course

William Spaniel

~4h

Spaniel's Game Theory 101 series is the short-form lecture complement to Polak's full classroom sessions — five-to-ten-minute videos that isolate a single structure (stag hunt, hawk-dove, commitment problems) and work it from the payoff table up. Named directly in the course plan's media-anchors section. Best used unit-by-unit as a fast pre- or post-read companion rather than watched straight through.

Covers 3 units in this course
Numberphile
~1h

Brady Haran's math-communication channel supplies the clearest video account of the Gale-Shapley stable-matching algorithm available anywhere on YouTube, featuring Dr. Emily Riehl. This is the direct video source for Unit 10's matching-market material — the same algorithm underlying real-world medical residency placement and school-choice systems the unit covers as mechanism-design case studies.

Covers 1 unit in this course
Marginal Revolution University
~1h

MRU's short, precisely scripted microeconomics videos supply the canonical treatment of Akerlof's used-car lemons problem, the founding case study for Unit 9's information-asymmetry material. Useful as a fast, accurate primer wherever the course needs a clean two-to-three-minute explainer rather than a full lecture.

Covers 1 unit in this course
U.S. Naval War College
~1h

The official channel of the institution that studies strategic conflict professionally, not academically — a deliberate inclusion given this course's audience overlap with readers headed toward defense, intelligence, and policy careers. Pete Pellegrino's public lecture on wargaming and game theory shows the discipline's actual professional-military application, complementing the economics-department and creator-channel registers that otherwise dominate this library.

Covers 1 unit in this course

All Units

1
2-3 weeks
Honor Among Thieves
Ransomware gangs that scrupulously honor decryption promises reveal a puzzle at the heart of strategic life: cooperation can emerge among people with every incentive to betray each other. Axelrod's tournament and tit-for-tat explain why.
  • •Define game theory as the study of strategic interdependence, where your best choice depends on what others choose
  • •Explain why reputation can sustain cooperation even among actors who have no legal recourse against each other
  • •State the four properties of TIT FOR TAT (nice, retaliatory, forgiving, clear) and explain why each was necessary to its tournament success
  • +1 more objectives
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2
2-3 weeks
Thinking Strategically
A grade game played on the reader reveals the difference between what you should never do (play a dominated strategy) and what a stable outcome looks like once nobody wants to change their mind (Nash equilibrium) — read directly from payoff tables, no derivation required.
  • •Read a payoff matrix and identify each player's available strategies and outcomes
  • •Identify a dominant strategy and a dominated strategy, and explain why a rational player never plays a dominated strategy
  • •Compute a best response to a given opponent strategy and use it to find a Nash equilibrium
  • +1 more objectives
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3
2-3 weeks
The Dilemma Everywhere
The Prisoner's Dilemma is not a puzzle about prisoners — it is a structure that recurs in arms races, price wars, doping scandals, overfishing, and group projects. Learning to recognize the structure, and to recognize when a situation is NOT a dilemma, is the diagnostic skill this course is built around.
  • •State the formal structure of the Prisoner's Dilemma and explain why mutual defection is the unique Nash equilibrium
  • •Identify the Prisoner's Dilemma structure across at least four different real-world domains
  • •Explain Hobbes's state-of-nature argument and Rousseau's stag hunt as two different diagnoses of the same underlying problem of trust
  • +1 more objectives
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4
2-3 weeks
Meeting Without Speaking
Where do you meet a stranger in New York City if you cannot communicate a plan in advance? Schelling's classic question reveals that some equilibria are not chosen through negotiation — they are found, through shared expectation, at points that stand out from all the alternatives.
  • •Explain why coordination games differ from the Prisoner's Dilemma and identify their defining structural feature
  • •Define a focal point (Schelling point) and explain how shared cultural knowledge, not communication, allows strangers to coordinate
  • •Analyze the Battle of the Sexes as a coordination game with competing preferences over which equilibrium to reach
  • +1 more objectives
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5
2-3 weeks
Burning the Boats
Power, in strategic terms, is not always the power to do more. Sometimes it is the power to do less — to remove your own options so completely that your opponent has no rational choice but to accommodate you. Commitment devices, brinkmanship, and the doomsday machine that failed for the simplest possible reason.
  • •Explain how removing one's own options can increase, rather than decrease, strategic power
  • •Define a commitment device and a credible threat, and explain what makes a threat credible rather than merely stated
  • •Analyze Cortés's decision to destroy his ships and Ulysses tying himself to the mast as two forms of the same strategic logic
  • +1 more objectives
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6
2-3 weeks
The Shadow of the Future
Two answers to the same problem — how do you make your future behavior believable when no court will enforce your promises? Schelling's answer was to remove your own options. Axelrod's answer, extended here, is to make the relationship last long enough that betrayal stops paying. Repeated games, reputation markets, and the moment repetition curdles into collusion.
  • •Distinguish two strategies for manufacturing credibility — commitment (removing options) and repetition (extending the horizon) — and explain why both solve the same underlying problem
  • •Explain the folk-theorem intuition: why an indefinitely repeated game can sustain cooperative outcomes that a one-shot version of the same game cannot
  • •Analyze eBay ratings, credit scores, and diplomatic reputation as real-world reputation markets built on repeated-game logic
  • +1 more objectives
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7
2-3 weeks
The Hawk and the Dove
Every strategy this course has studied so far assumed a mind doing the choosing. This unit removes the mind. Deer that fight with antlers instead of teeth, vampire bats that share blood meals with starving neighbors, and a mathematical biologist who showed that genes can play — and win — a game without ever knowing they are playing one.
  • •Define an evolutionarily stable strategy and explain how it differs from a Nash equilibrium chosen by a reasoning player
  • •Analyze the hawk-dove game and explain why a population of pure aggressors is not evolutionarily stable
  • •Explain why ritualized combat evolves in species with dangerous natural weapons, using the hawk-dove logic
  • +1 more objectives
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8
2-3 weeks
Governing the Commons
A pasture, a fishery, and an argument that shaped fifty years of environmental policy: Garrett Hardin said shared resources are doomed unless a state or a market steps in to control them. Elinor Ostrom spent decades in the field proving him wrong — Swiss alpine pastures, Maine lobster gangs, and centuries-old irrigation communities that governed themselves without either. Neither state nor market. A third way, and it actually exists.
  • •Explain Hardin's tragedy-of-the-commons model and the individual incentive structure that produces overuse of a shared resource
  • •Explain why Ostrom's field research into Swiss pastures, Maine lobster fishing, and acequia irrigation contradicted Hardin's prediction that only state control or privatization can prevent commons collapse
  • •Summarize Ostrom's eight design principles and explain what they have in common as solutions to the free-rider problem
  • +1 more objectives
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9
2-3 weeks
What the Seller Knows
The used car on the lot might be fine, or it might be a lemon nobody would buy if they knew what the seller knows. Akerlof's used-car market, the diploma on your wall, and a peacock's absurd tail turn out to be the same strategic object wearing different costumes — and the propagandist's flood of information is one more player exploiting the identical gap between what one side knows and the other can only guess.
  • •Explain Akerlof's used-car market problem and how information asymmetry can cause an entire market to unravel
  • •Distinguish signaling from screening as two different strategies for closing an information gap, and identify who initiates each
  • •Explain why a costly signal can be credible where cheap talk cannot, using the peacock's tail and the diploma as parallel cases
  • +1 more objectives
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10
2-3 weeks
Changing the Rules
Every unit in this course has asked how a rational player should behave inside a given game. This capstone unit asks a different question: if the game keeps producing outcomes nobody wants, why treat the rules as fixed? Spectrum auctions, kidney exchanges, and school-matching systems show economists redesigning the game itself — and the course closes with the full diagnostic toolkit you now carry.
  • •Explain mechanism design as the reverse of ordinary game theory: starting from a desired outcome and working backward to a set of rules that produces it
  • •Analyze the FCC spectrum auction and kidney exchange as cases where redesigning the rules solved a problem that appealing to players' goodwill could not
  • •Explain matching markets and why some goods (school seats, kidneys) cannot simply be sold at a market-clearing price
  • +1 more objectives
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An open educational resource. No calculus required — payoff tables are read like tables. Companion lectures: Ben Polak's Open Yale ECON 159.